2024 Open Championship Preview
The Open returns to Royal Troon eight years after the historic duel between Henrick Stenson and Phil Mickelson. Stenson won at -20 with Mickelson finishing three shots back but 11 clear of 3rd place J.B. Holmes. This year, The Old Course at Royal Troon will play as a par 71, measuring 7,385 yards—almost 200 yards longer than in 2016. It is a classical Ocean Links course with a traditional out-and-back routing. However, instead of nine out and nine in, Troon is six out, six zig-zagging, and six in. The wind is typically helping off the right for the first six holes and into off the left on the last six, making it key for players to get out to a strong start. The back nine will be incredibly difficult for all players, but the left-to-right wind will favor right-handers who hit draws and lefties who play fades. Like all of the courses on the Open Rota, the wind will play a significant factor and as of now, it seems it will be robust but not diabolical with forecasts hovering around 15 mph. I predict this creates scoring levels somewhere in between St. Andrews and Royal Liverpool with the winning score around 15-under.
Being long off the tee and hitting long irons at an elite level has emerged as the prototype to win at Augusta and U.S. Open and PGA Championship setups. The Open Championship presents a different test, one that requires more wedge shots than long irons and promotes accuracy over distance off the tee. This was no more obvious than at Holyoke last summer where Brian Harman, one of the shortest players on tour, plotted his way to a six-shot victory. I kept this in mind when making my picks, but didn’t let it guide them as I feel this isn’t a tournament where a certain type of player will thrive more than others.
Official Pick
It’s been 10 years and 38 majors since Rory last triumphed at a major championship. The most recent heartbreak at Pinehurst was probably the most gut-wrenching. With all that being said, Rory has been statistically the best major player over the past 10 years in strokes gained. He played well last week at the Renaissance Club, finishing 4th despite losing over a stroke on the greens. Some may be worried about his ability to rebound after Pinehurst but he did it before winning the 2011 U.S. Open after a final round 80 at Augusta a couple of months prior. Although his wedge play is widely criticized, and it has let him down at times, McIlroy is better from 100-150 yards than from 150-200 or >200. Overall, there is nothing about this course that excites me or worries me regarding Mcllroy’s profile. This pick stems from believing that one of the greatest talents will finally exercise his demons and prevail.
Mid-Tier Player to Contend
Before looking at the odds I thought I would be able to slot Tommy Fleetwood in here, he’s been one of the most consistent major players and Troon is a fantastic course fit for him. Unfortunately, the books seem to have the same thinking, as Fleetwood is as low as 20-1. Instead, I will pivot to another guy who is an exceptional links player in Tony Finau, who has gained 1.96 strokes per round on links courses, third among players in the field to only Jordan Spieth and Tom Kim. Finau is also in great form with three straight top 10s, highlighted by a 3rd place finish at the U.S. Open. His driving profile might not be ideal for Troon but his crafty short game and approach prowess gives me confidence that Finau will be in the hunt.
Long Shot to Contend
It is insane to call Jordan Spieth a long shot at a major, but it has been a dramatic fall for the three-time major champion. Spieth has struggled in regular tour events and has been worse in majors, missing the cut at Augusta and finishing outside the top 40 at Valhalla and Pinehurst. Spieth is coming off a MC the prior week at the Renaissance Club, losing -2.28 strokes gained approach over the two rounds, a common theme for him this year. Still, Spieth being 70-1 at the Open Championship feels offensive for the best links golfer of the past ten years. Spieth's creativity both around the green and shaping shots combined with his ability to make mid-long range putts always makes him a threat at a proper links test. While the lack of form is concerning, there is so much talent left and I have no doubt Spieth will contend in majors again, so why not now?
Player who will Disappoint
Bryson Dechambeau has been a top-five player this year, but I’m not convinced he is a top-five player. Valhalla was barely a major and although his short game performance at Pinehurst was sensational, he got away with many wayward drives. Links golf also does not fit DeChambeau's game. Driving accuracy is paramount, something DeChambeau has struggled with and it is important to have the ability to keep the ball low through the Scottish winds, something DeChambeau is physically incapable of doing with his 3D-printed irons. The stats back this as Bryson has lost -0.38 strokes on average in his 30 rounds on links courses. I expect the “Big Golfer” to struggle at Troon and potentially miss the cut.
I’ll leave you with three other bold-ish predictions I have for the 152nd Open Championship.
Tiger Woods makes the cut
Russell Henley records his second straight major top-15
Akshay Bhatia cards his best major performance to date (previously 16th at Pinehurst)
