European Ryder Cup Predictions
Rory McIlroy… DataGolf Ranking: T2
It’s long been said that Europe’s continued Ryder Cup success stems from players checking their egos at the door. Rory McIlroy isn’t a Grand Slam champion when Monday rolls around; he’s one of twelve guys on the team. Yet the reality is, Europe goes as Rory goes; the younger players look up to him and feed off his energy.
Play-wise, this has been Rory’s best putting season by far—he ranks in the top five on tour—but his ball-striking has declined, particularly his driving accuracy. It’s been his worst season off the tee since 2013. Even so, McIlroy’s massive distance (99th percentile) more than compensates for his poor accuracy (13th percentile), keeping him among the elite drivers at 96th overall.[1]
This marks the 15-year anniversary of Rory’s first Ryder Cup. His record speaks for itself: 16-13-4 with Europe going 5-2 during his tenure. He went 4-1 in Rome, winning both foursomes matches with Fleetwood, a partnership Donald will surely revisit.
Jon Rahm… DataGolf Ranking: T2
No golfer rivals Jon Rahm’s appreciation for golf history. When you combine that obsession with his intensity and reverence for Olazabal and Seve, you get someone who wants to win the Ryder Cup maybe more than is healthy.
Rahm has been relegated to irrelevancy in LIV, but he’s still a top-three player in the world—right there with Rory. He finished in the top 15 in the first three majors, and although he hasn’t racked up a win on LIV, he has been remarkably consistent. Rahm has been Europe’s best player over the last two Cups with a dominant 5-1-3 record. His foursomes partnership with Hatton was lethal in Rome, taking down Scheffler/Burns and Cantlay/Schauffele. Luke will absolutely go back to that well. For fourballs, expect the Spaniard paired with one of Europe’s younger birdie-makers.
Tommy Fleetwood… DataGolf Ranking: 4th
It’s been a year of heartbreaks for Tommy, but one thing that’s not in question is how good of golf he is playing. After the Tour Championship, assuming Tommy finishes top-10, he will pass McIlroy and Rahm in the rankings. DataGolf points are perhaps a better quantifier of a golfer’s play, and Tommy ranks 11th this season.[2]
While he doesn’t have a PGA Tour win, his resume everywhere else is elite. He’s recorded top-5 finishes in all four majors, captured seven DP World Tour wins, and posted a 7-3-2 record in Ryder Cup play. Fleetwood and Molinari famously went undefeated in their four matches during the 2018 rout, and now Donald seems to have found Tommy a new foursomes partner in McIlroy. If there is one thing Fleetwood struggles with, it’s hitting out of the rough, so it will be imperative that McIlroy gets his driver straightened out.
What Donald decides to do with Tommy in fourballs will be interesting. His partnership with Hovland managed just half a point over two matches in 2021, and he and Nicolai Højgaard lost their lone fourball match in Rome. It will make sense to put Tommy’s steady presence with a more volatile player, but who exactly Donald chooses is still a mystery.
Viktor Hovland… DataGolf Ranking: 16th
Hovland’s relentless search for perfection has been well documented (this article on him is one of my favorites; give it a read). You can see it clearly in his game: after a historic 2023 season that ranked 36th all-time in DataGolf points, Hovland’s strokes gained were cut in half, and he didn’t win once. He hasn’t been much better this year, although he was able to nab a victory at the Valspar. The iron play is elite, ranking second in the world behind only Scheffler, but his once-dominant driving is now just average, and his short game has also regressed.
In my U.S. article, I mistakenly called Hovland a Ryder Cup rookie in 2023. No excuse, but it’s easy to see why I forgot about Wisconsin, where he went 0-3-2. He bounced back in Rome, going 3-1-1, capped off by a dominant 4&3 win over his classmate Collin Morikawa. Hovland has played all five sessions in each of the last two cups, but with his dip in play, it will be interesting to see if Donald scales back his role this time around.
Ludvig Aberg… DataGolf Ranking: 11th
It’s been a weird year for the young Swede. After a stellar win at the Genesis Invitational and a spectacular performance at Augusta, where he almost won, his game fell off a cliff. He has seemingly regained some form, with three top 10s in his last four starts. The driver is still an absolute super power, and he’s one of the best long iron players in the world, but his wedges and around-the-green game leave a lot to be desired.
Aberg teamed with Hovland in all three of his matches in Rome. The two Nords cruised to a 4&3 victory over Homa and Harmon and then handed Scheffler and Koepka a 9&7 defeat, before losing to Burns and Morikawa in fourballs. Aberg and Hovland will certainly stay together in Friday fourballs, and it will be interesting to see if Donald keeps them together in every session or mixes it up.
Nick Faldo always talks about needing a trustworthy big four who can go all five sessions. They’re your workhorses, taking most of the points while appearing in nearly half of your matches the first two days. Rahm, Rory, and Fleetwood are expected to be three of those guys, and Donald will likely need one of Aberg or Hovland to step up.
Justin Rose… DataGolf Ranking: 46th
Evaluating Justin Rose’s 2025 season is nearly impossible. On one hand, he delivered one of the more incredible Masters performances in recent memory, overshadowed only by McIlroy’s masterpiece. He also captured an electric BMW Championship win, birdieing four straight holes to force a playoff before winning with a birdie on the third extra hole. On the other hand, he’s missed 7 of 17 cuts and has four other finishes in the 40s.
This is where DG Points become invaluable for evaluating older players like Rose. He ranks 46th in strokes gained but 11th in DG Points. When aging stars like Rose don’t have their best stuff, they’re more likely to mail it in and accept a 44th-place finish rather than grind for a top-20. DG Points reward those peaks, while strokes gained gets dragged down by all the mediocre rounds. It can get a bit dangerous giving the older players too much credit. Rose missed the cut at the U.S. Open, PGA, Genesis, and The Players, four of the six biggest events, and ones he clearly was willing to grind during. Still, Rose is the type of player whom I will give the benefit of the doubt to come Ryder Cup time.
Rose is the last man standing from the golden age of European golfers who dominated the Ryder Cup—Poulter, García, Stenson, and Molinari. The Englishman boasts a 14-9-3 record in Ryder Cup play. In Rome, his primary job was mentoring MacIntyre, and this wasn’t just on-course guidance. Donald and the Molinaris instructed Rose to stay glued to the young Scot’s hip from the moment the week began. It took MacIntyre some time to settle in, but Rose steadied him to a clutch draw in Friday fourballs. Once the Scot found his comfort zone, the two Brits cruised past Spieth and Thomas on Saturday.
Expect more of the same this time around. Rose ranks 159th out of 167 players in bogey avoidance, which makes him perfect for fourballs. He’ll likely be paired with MacIntyre again, giving Europe a tested combination.
Robert MacIntyre… DataGolf Ranking: 12th
The PGA Tour has incurred some serious losses to LIV over the past few years, but aside from Scheffler, perhaps its biggest gain has been the emergence of a ‘Great Scot’. MacIntyre has blossomed into one of the most complete players in the world—he doesn’t have a weakness. He has nine top-10s this season, highlighted by the U.S. Open, where late in the evening it looked like he was going to win.
MacIntyre went an impressive 2-0-1 in his Ryder Cup debut in 2023 (although Rose carried him in his first session), but he wasn’t even close to the player he is now. He was barely a positive strokes gained player in 2023, ranking 153rd in the world at that point. This year, he has been +1.31 and is 12th in the DataGolf rankings. MacIntyre and Rose were a formidable fourball duo, so expect Donald to go back to them there. The Scot didn’t play a foursomes match, but considering his rise in play and consistency, he is well deserving of at least one.
Rasmus Hojgaard… DataGolf Ranking: 52nd
I believe this European team will feature the exact same 12 last names as Rome, just switching Højgaard twins. Rasmus likely won’t even need a captain’s pick. He needs to finish T29 or better at this week’s British Masters to crack the automatic top six. Even if he falls short, he’s still deserving of selection. European leadership has been grooming him for Bethpage for two years. While his play didn’t warrant a pick in 2023, they recognized his future potential and had him shadow the Molinaris as an unofficial assistant to the vice captain.
The Dane can make birdies in bunches, but he also piles up bogeys—he’s dead last on tour in bogey avoidance. Don’t expect to see him in foursomes, but he’ll be dangerous in fourballs paired with a steady presence like Rahm or Fleetwood. Rasmus is by no means an elite player yet; he is 52nd in the DataGolf rankings and has finished outside the top-30 13 times this season. Luckily, match play is a completely different animal, especially fourballs, where his weaknesses vanish. He absolutely mashes the golf ball, which suits Bethpage perfectly, and while his around-the-green play is sketchy, scrambling for par becomes largely irrelevant in best-ball format when you’re paired with the likes of Fleetwood and Rahm. Even if he doesn’t finish top-30 this week, I would have no hesitation taking him over Harry Hall despite the sizable difference in their stroke play numbers.
Tyrell Hatton… DataGolf Ranking: 29th
You can blame LIV’s irrelevancy for the lack of coverage on this, but Tyrell Hatton has struggled this season. The majors have actually been kind to the fiery Englishman, who finished top-20 in the three real majors. But his play on LIV has been poor, dropping him to 29th in DataGolf rankings, resulting in his worst season since 2019.
The challenge with LIV players is determining how much their results there actually matter. Hatton’s major success and five top-10s (including two wins) in five DP World Tour starts early in the year suggest he might simply not care about LIV. When the stakes matter, maybe he’s still the elite player from the early 2020s. But it’s hard to ignore data that comprises more than half the sample size. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter where Hatton falls in that range; you pair him with Rahm for both foursomes sessions.
Shane Lowry… DataGolf Ranking: 40th
It has been a rough season for the Irishman. His best finish at a major this season was T40 at the Open Championship, and he hasn’t had a top-10 since the Truist in May. His putting, which has never been his strong suit, has been a serious deficiency.
Given Lowry’s age and reputation, it’s tempting to lump him with Justin Rose as a Ryder Cup stalwart. However, 2021 was Lowry’s first Cup, and in six matches, he managed an unimpressive 2-3-1.. He brings great energy to the team room and is still a good player, but don’t expect him to be a force for this European team. He will likely only play three sessions again, and if there is anyone who would sit out three sessions it’s the 2019 Open Champion.
Matt Fitzpatrick… DataGolf Ranking: 14th
It did not look like Fitzpatrick would come even close to sniffing this team as recently as three months ago. But since a T40 at The Masters, Fitzy hasn’t finished outside of the top 30, gaining at least 0.93 strokes in each of those events. His more recent play has been especially good, with four top 10s in his last six starts. His short game has returned to its elite form, and although he isn’t the caliber of player he was in 2022, occupying the 14th spot in the DataGolf rankings makes him deserving of a spot.
The other reason why it didn’t look like Fitzpatrick would make the team is because of his abysmal Ryder Cup record. Fitzpatrick is 1-7-0 across three Cups—the worst point percentage of any player who’s competed in at least four matches. Truthfully, I am not sure he gives the Europeans a better chance to win than Nicolai Hojgaard or Harry Hall does, but as of now, it seems like he will be a pick.
Sepp Straka… DataGolf Ranking: 18th
This has been the best season of Sepp Straka’s career. He has gained more than a full stroke per round compared to any previous year—a massive leap that’s produced 12 top-15s and two victories. He has also missed the cut in the first three majors and only managed a T52 at the Open. His around-the-green game remains his Achilles’ heel. While it’s improved, he’s still below average overall and absolutely dreadful from bunkers, ranking in the bottom 10th percentile in sand play.
Sepp went a meager 1-2-0 in Rome, partnering with Lowry in foursomes both days. His birdie percentage has skyrocketed from his 2023 self, going from 81st to 7th, so it would be surprising not to see him playing fourballs at least once.
Because of the continuity of the European team, the pairings are easier to predict. I am going to go a step further and try to predict all sixteen pairings.
1. Friday Foursomes
a. McIlroy and Fleetwood
b. Rahm and Hatton
c. Aberg and Hovland
d. MacIntyre and Lowry
2. Friday Fourballs
a. Rahm and Hojgaard
b. Fitzpatrick and McIlroy
c. Fleetwood and Straka
d. Rose and MacIntyre
3. Saturday Foursomes
a. McIlroy and Fleetwood
b. Rahm and Hatton
c. Aberg and Hovland
d. Lowry and Straka
4. Saturday Fourballs
a. Rose and MacIntyre
b. Fleetwood and Hojgaard
c. Aberg and Rahm
d. McIlroy and Fitzpatrick
[1] If this stat doesn’t illustrate the disproportionate advantage distance gives players in the modern game, I don’t know what does.
[2] DG Points offers another way to evaluate seasons than strokes gained because they weigh wins and high finishes more heavily. For example, gaining 5 strokes to win is worth more than gaining 5 strokes to move from 35th to 20th place. However, DG Points have limitations that strokes gained addresses. Take Phil Mickelson’s best-ever strokes gained performance: +6.6 at the 2016 Open Championship, where he finished second. That would receive the same amount of points as Ernie Els’ 2nd place finish to Tiger at the 2000 U.S. Open, where he finished 15 shots behind Woods. Sometimes one paints a more accurate picture than the other, but the truth is, they work best in tandem. Both strokes gained and DG points account for field size, strength, and skill distribution (something OWGR doesn’t do well).
https://nolayingup.com/blog/viktor-hovland-is-searching-for-his-old-self
