U.S. Ryder Cup Predictions
AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS
Scottie Scheffler… Data Golf Ranking: #1
In the months leading up to the Ryder Cup, the discourse inevitably centers around the 9th-12th guys. But here’s the thing: Sam Burns or Cameron Young are likely not going to decide the Ryder Cup. Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Bryson DeChambeau will. The U.S. might not have a true #2 after Scheffler, but that’s okay because Scottie has moved beyond ‘best since Tiger’ territory and is now flirting with ‘as good as Tiger’ status. He is gaining +3.30 strokes per round, 1.24 more than Rory McIlroy, who is second. To put this into perspective: if you gave Rory a 5-stroke advantage over everyone else in the field, that’s how good Scottie is now.
Since we’ve already brought up the Tiger comparison, let’s stick there. Perhaps the biggest stain on Tiger’s resume was his lack of success in the Ryder Cup, specifically on Friday and Saturday. Woods just struggled to play with a partner. Scheffler didn’t win a single match in Rome, and he and Koepka were handed a 9&7 defeat by rookies Hovland and Aberg. I would be shocked if 2023 was the start of a trend for Scheffler in team events. While Tiger’s ego and rigidness were great explanations for his struggles, there is nothing about Scheffler that suggests he’ll continue to struggle. I expect him to play all five matches for Keegan and post at least three points.
Xander Schauffele… Data Golf Ranking: #8
I mentioned that the U.S. doesn’t have a true #2 behind Scottie. Xander Schauffele seemed destined for that role, but 2025 has been unkind to the two-time major champion. What started with injuries has spiraled into a season plagued by a sporadic driver and below-average putting—leaving him without a single top-five finish. His good friend Patrick Cantlay has also endured a down year, yet even in their current form, there are only a couple of European pairings I’d favor over these two stalwarts.
Bryson DeChambeau… Data Golf Ranking: #6
Bryson. New York. Ryder Cup. Love him or hate him, US fan or European, no one will be able to take their eyes off the Big Golfer. If there is a #2, it’s this guy. Bryson’s driving this year has been at a stupid level, gaining 1.52 strokes with the driver per round. Only eight players gain more strokes TOTAL per round. The fact that DeChambeau qualified for this team on the back of just eight tournaments speaks volumes about his play in the biggest events. Bethpage is a bomber’s paradise, so while concerns about other aspects of his game remain, they should be largely neutralized.
His Ryder Cup career has been a tale of two extremes: he didn’t win a match in 2018 and didn’t lose one in 2021. One of Keegan’s most important jobs will be giving Bryson a comfortable pairing. If DeChambeau is playing well, that energy will ripple throughout Long Island—and it will be infectious.
J.J. Spaun… Data Golf Ranking: #9
After falling to McIlroy in a Monday playoff at The Players, J.J. Spaun looked like a name destined to fade into history. That certainly seemed to be the case through April and May, but Spaun found himself in contention on a chaotic Sunday at Oakmont. Despite a series of unlucky bounces, he delivered clutch drives and putts when it mattered most to win the U.S. Open. He’s maintained that stellar form ever since, highlighted by a runner-up finish to Justin Rose at the BMW Championship.
Nothing can truly prepare a rookie for Ryder Cup intensity, but at least the old WGC Match Play gave pros some recent match play experience. Now? Most of these guys haven’t played a meaningful match since college. This is unfortunate for the rookies, but it makes them that much more compelling. I am not worried about Spaun, though; his well-rounded game and ability to deal with setbacks show he has the makings of a match-play killer. He is my early pick for Ryder Cup hero.
Russell Henley… Data Golf Ranking: #5
When you say proper player, my mind immediately goes to Russell Henley. While he’s not a bomber, he’s still above average off the tee, and every other aspect of his game is elite. He boasts one of the world’s best short games, and despite mid-season putting struggles, he’s returned to that trademark precision on the greens. The Georgia Bulldog has notched eight top-10s this year, including a win at the API, where he hunted down Collin Morikawa. Henley embodies what every Ryder Cup captain wants: a versatile, unflappable player who can slot into any pairing without missing a beat. Keegan can put him out there with any of the other 11 guys and feel confident.
Harris English… Data Golf Ranking: 21
English is a Walmart Russell Henley. This is no slight to English; Henley is 5th in the DataGolf rankings, above DeChambeau. English is also a former Georgia Bulldog who can roll the rock with the best of them. He made every major cut this year and was beaten by only Scottie Scheffler at both the PGA and Open. English and Henley represent the ideal Ryder Cup skill profile: above-average distance without being bombers, elite long iron play, and deadly putting. They’ll hit fairways but typically be behind their opponents off the tee, allowing them to hit approach shots first—a massive advantage. Then they can rip opponents’ hearts out by draining everything on the greens. Both are perfect partners for Scheffler and DeChambeau.
CAPTAIN’S PICKS (PREDICTIONS)
Justin Thomas… Data Golf Ranking: 17
With JT’s poor form in 2023, there was doubt until the last minute if he’d get a captain’s pick. While he’ll still need one this go-around, there’s no doubt, and he’ll likely be the first name Keegan says. JT has been the best American Ryder Cup player of his generation, boasting a 7-4-2 record. Although he went 1-2-1 in Rome, this was largely due to Spieth being atrocious. If he gets going, JT will feed off the New York crowd, and vice versa. Scottie is the best player, Henley is the stabilizing force, Bryson will be the crowd favorite, but JT is the heart and soul of this team. Zach Johnson made a grave error by not sending Thomas out Friday morning, but I don’t expect Keegan to repeat that mistake. JT should hit the opening tee shot on Friday.
That said, these past few months have been deeply concerning. He followed up his win with a T2 at the Truist, but since then has finished inside the top-20 only once in eight starts. His driver is very, very bad. He is in the 17th percentile, the worst mark among any of the 12 guys in the big four categories. I expect Thomas to spend most of September working on straightening out the big stick. While his putter has been on fire, gaining nearly half a shot per round, if he can’t keep it in play at Bethpage, he might be unplayable in foursomes.
Collin Morikawa… Data Golf Ranking: 27
The funny part of this U.S. team is that outside of Scheffler and DeChambeau, the big names are struggling while the lesser names are thriving. Spaun, Griffin, and Henley are all in the top-10 in DataGolf rankings, while the likes of JT, Cantlay, and Morikawa sit outside the top-15. Perhaps no one’s struggles are worse than Collin’s. It starts with the short game, which is a SERIOUS problem. Morikawa was one of the better ARG players last year—now he’s dead average. The putting is even worse: 32nd percentile, but the eye test tells an uglier story. Every missed putt leaves Collin looking completely bamboozled. Since The Players, he has just one top-10 (a T8 at the Rocket Classic) in 13 starts, losing strokes putting in nine of those 13 events. The iron play remains world-class, and he’s still supremely accurate off the tee, but let’s be honest: he’s probably not one of the twelve best Americans right now. Still, you don’t leave a two-time major champion in his prime at home.
Ben Griffin… Data Golf Ranking: 7
What a freaking story. Griffin broke out to grab his first PGA Tour win at the Zurich Classic, but team events often produce random winners who fade back to obscurity. Griffin is different. He grabbed another win at the Charles Schwab and has 11 top-15s in his last 14 starts and ranks in the 91st, 89th, and 96th percentiles in approach play, around-the-green, and putting, respectively. He’s unassuming with his sunglasses and history as an accountant, but Griffin is a stone-cold gamer. Case in point: at last week’s BMW Championship, Griffin accidentally took too much creatine before the final round, started double-triple-bogey, then played the final 15 holes in 7-under. Griffin’s fearless, gamer mentality and red-hot form make him the perfect wild card for a hostile Bethpage crowd.
Cameron Young… Data Golf Ranking: 23
Before winning at Wyndham, Cameron Young was the tour’s ultimate bridesmaid with seven runner-up finishes. Without that first win, team selection seemed impossible, no matter how well he played. Young hasn’t made some dramatic leap; his overall game has actually regressed from his 2022 and 2023 peaks. His elite approach play is now just above average, and his once-dominant driver is merely very good. The difference? His putting has gone from the bottom-30th percentile to the 98th percentile. Fair or not, that win changed everything, and coupled with strong playoff showings, Young appears penciled in for Bethpage. He’s the most likely player to only play two sessions (likely both fourballs), but Young can make birdies in bunches.
Patrick Cantlay… Data Golf Ranking: 22
Cantlay certainly caused a storm in 2023 with the hat scandal. It’s no secret he believes he should be paid for the Ryder Cup, a belief, combined with his slight dip in play, might tempt Americans to want to keep him at home. But the truth is, he is still gaining 1.5 strokes this year. While his putter has fallen off a bit, it’s the best he’s ever hit his irons, and aside from Thomas, he has been the best American of this generation. He and Schauffele are a formidable duo, and the U.S. can pencil those two in and feel confident with whoever they draw.
Keegan Bradley… Data Golf Ranking: 24
The first thing I wrote in this article was that the Rasmus Hojgaard's or Cameron Young's don’t decide the Ryder Cup. Neither would the player Keegan Bradley. But the captain Keegan Bradley can. Europe has won 8 of the last 11 Ryder Cups, which is in large part due to their consistently superior captains and team culture. The U.S. will likely never be able to replicate the culture of Europe, but the difference between ideas such as Azinger’s ingenious Navy SEAL pods and Zach Johnson’s atrocious time management can decide cups.
Keegan has made an absolute mess of this situation. We love those great ‘bet on yourself’ stories where athletes defy the odds through pure self-belief and talent. Keegan did the exact opposite—he’s created a no-win scenario that has already dominated the news cycle in all the wrong ways, and will continue to do so regardless of his final decision.
The truth about captains is that they both matter more and less than we think. If Morikawa looks like his 2021 version, Xander returns to last year’s form, and some rookies step up, I could captain this team to victory. Conversely, it was impossible to expect success in Rome given Zach Johnson’s questionable decisions. It’s not just about pairings—it’s about making players comfortable, keeping dinners and media stress-free, and helping guys transition from an individual sport to a team one. There’s no exact science here. A captain’s impact varies wildly from cycle to cycle: sometimes it matters enormously, other times very little. All they can do is make decisions that give their team the best chance to win, and so far, “Captain America” hasn’t done that.
To bring this back to whether Keegan should pick himself, it’s pretty clear to me he shouldn’t. If he weren’t the captain, he’d deserve a spot on the team, but the difference between him and Sam Burns or Maverick McNealy is minimal, and the negative press plus the burden of dual responsibilities isn’t worth that marginal gap. His comments from recent press conferences reveal an inferiority complex he’s trying to overcome by becoming the first playing captain since Arnold Palmer. I think he’ll pick himself, and while I still expect the U.S. to win, it’s a decision that hurts their chances.
For what it’s worth, if I were filling out this team, I would pick Maverick McNealy over Keegan, and potentially Sam Burns over Morikawa.
Here are some pairings I think the U.S. should roll out.
1. Xander and Patrick
2. Scheffler and Henley
3. Bryson and JT (Fourball)
4. Bryson and English/Griffin (Foursomes)
5. J.J. and Griffin (Foursomes)
6. Cam Young and Keegan/Scottie (Fourballs)
